Looks like I've settled in on Mariwocket as my pre-cata main. These processes are mysterious. Intellectually, I know Djargenstad is a superior main. Shadow priest DPS is fun and somewhat interesting, and there's a ton of utility in having a priest.
But Mariwocket has demons. And more demons. And can turn into a demon. And at level 85 gets some wild demon soul ability. And they went and fixed my biggest complaint: destruction DPS was boring. It's not boring anymore, it's actually the most complex rotation of the specs, far more interesting than even spriest, and it rewards with very good DPS. So there we are.
Before cata goes live, I'd like to get Mariwocket the explorer title. Easy enough. I also want to finish my Kurenai grind and get her talbucks. Probably won't be able to get the PvP ones, since nobody ever fights in Halaa anymore, but I'll keep an eye on that possibility.
I'll also farm ZG as much as I can for the two mounts in there. Turns out, demonology spec is great for farming oldworld instances. Hellfire is a channelable AoE that moves with you while you move, and does respectable damage. Couple that with your pet's brostorm, and you've got a TON of movable AoE. For bossfights, you get 36 seconds of metamorph, which turns you into a respectable tank. I've tanked heroic instance bosses by accident while testing out my metamorph (ripped aggro, but the healer noticed so I was okay). In a similar vein: I need to do Kara a little. I want to learn mongoose, and if I can regularly farm Attumen solo, I'll be able to try for his mount too.
I want to get the Northrend and Outland loremasters done, at least as much as possible. I don't know how far I'll get in those progressions, but it looks like those aren't going to change in the Cataclysm, so work there shouldn't be wasted (I'm afraid of doing Old World loremaster chase, because work there may well be wasted).
I'd also like to down the rest of ICC, including the LK. My current guild has the chops to pull this off, but as a 10-man guild, we have some timing problems. We're also smeared across five time zones (some Atlantic Canadians in the guild), which doesn't help.
Mariwocket needs a Turkey pet.
That's about it. I'm more-or-less done with Justice Point purchases. Future earnings in that department will go toward a blue or two at 85. If I get really bored, I could do more tourney dailies. I'm a crusader already, so access to the odd heirloom when the alt urge strikes might be handy, and there's always a few 100-badge mounts I could shoot for. Remains to be seen.
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
My new profit theory: Market Timing
Okay, I'm rich. I got through the 4.0.1 patch madness making about 200k in revenue. I spent a fair amount of that already (32k on a mammoth and motorcycle for my warlock, 310 flight for the warlock and the priest, a tithe to my guildbank). But I've still got about 150k in liquid gold right now and some long-term investments sitting in my bank (I'm buying Razzashi Raptor pets when they're on the market for a reasonable price, since they won't be in the game after cataclysm). If only I could make this kind of money with foresight and investment in the real world, huh? Income is down to pre-patch levels, and I'm pretty sure I'm retiring for the time being- I don't want to spend all my time milling herbs and stuff. I will still post and repost the glyphs I have in stock, but I've got bigger fish to fry for now: achievements before the expac, and another giant windfall income spike after Cataclysm goes live.
Today's post is not about making money with a profession, which is what I've been talking about for a while. Today I want to talk about market timing and event analysis. That's what led to my giant windfall income from 4.0.1. I didn't even really need to be a scribe to make this profit (although a non-scribe would not have made as much and would have more limited options). All I did was realize that the market supply of glyphs would be nowhere near sufficient to meet the needs of consumers when the patch launched. I could (and actually did) buy those glyphs off the market pre-patch to relist at a healthy markup. That doesn't require any tradeskills, just foresight and fortitude in your speculation. In some real way, though, that speculation is what drove up prices too- when the patch launched, I was buying all glyphs listed under 10g and relisting them considerably higher. People were too busy fiddling with their addons and getting new specs and downloading the new client to upkeep their auction posts, so I was able to create an artificial demand bubble.
I predict that the same conditions exist for cataclysm launch day. Non-professional marketeers (scribes, JCs, etc who aren't run by for-profit goldselling companies) will likely be far more interested in getting to the new zones, racing to level 85, grinding up their tradeskill to 525, and rolling their goblin banker alt than they will be in providing market services. At the same time, we will see a double-influx of new demand on the market. People who had been taking time off from the game will come back during launch week. People who have well-established characters will roll new alts to experience the new races or the new race/class combinations.
Some of the latter category will plan ahead and create a CARE package for their new characters, including bags, glyphs, useful gear, and so on. Many will not. The market for bags and glyphs in particular will likely take off. Gems will also sell, to a lesser extent though. Unlike the 4.0 patch, I don't predict that many people will be willing to pay 150g or more to put the "proper" gem into a piece of armor that is likely to be replaced in a few hours by questing (quest rewards in the first cata zones are only slightly worse than ICC-25 gear).
While I used to think that my 5k/week income was the bees knees, and in some way it really was, it only served to position me in the market. I had enough liquid worth that I could sink a 10k investment into patch preparation. The market break at that point was worth waiting for.
There are similar (but smaller) market breaks that should be predictable. Every new arena season provides a smallish run on certain gem cuts, tuesdays in general see a lot of raiding and therefore a lot of flask demand. I think I'm going to move away from providing a constant supply of items to the market (which takes a lot of time and effort) to identifying and capitalizing on trends. This might actually take *more* effort as I probe the supply/demand relationship in this very weird marketplace we call the AH, but it should be interesting.
Today's post is not about making money with a profession, which is what I've been talking about for a while. Today I want to talk about market timing and event analysis. That's what led to my giant windfall income from 4.0.1. I didn't even really need to be a scribe to make this profit (although a non-scribe would not have made as much and would have more limited options). All I did was realize that the market supply of glyphs would be nowhere near sufficient to meet the needs of consumers when the patch launched. I could (and actually did) buy those glyphs off the market pre-patch to relist at a healthy markup. That doesn't require any tradeskills, just foresight and fortitude in your speculation. In some real way, though, that speculation is what drove up prices too- when the patch launched, I was buying all glyphs listed under 10g and relisting them considerably higher. People were too busy fiddling with their addons and getting new specs and downloading the new client to upkeep their auction posts, so I was able to create an artificial demand bubble.
I predict that the same conditions exist for cataclysm launch day. Non-professional marketeers (scribes, JCs, etc who aren't run by for-profit goldselling companies) will likely be far more interested in getting to the new zones, racing to level 85, grinding up their tradeskill to 525, and rolling their goblin banker alt than they will be in providing market services. At the same time, we will see a double-influx of new demand on the market. People who had been taking time off from the game will come back during launch week. People who have well-established characters will roll new alts to experience the new races or the new race/class combinations.
Some of the latter category will plan ahead and create a CARE package for their new characters, including bags, glyphs, useful gear, and so on. Many will not. The market for bags and glyphs in particular will likely take off. Gems will also sell, to a lesser extent though. Unlike the 4.0 patch, I don't predict that many people will be willing to pay 150g or more to put the "proper" gem into a piece of armor that is likely to be replaced in a few hours by questing (quest rewards in the first cata zones are only slightly worse than ICC-25 gear).
While I used to think that my 5k/week income was the bees knees, and in some way it really was, it only served to position me in the market. I had enough liquid worth that I could sink a 10k investment into patch preparation. The market break at that point was worth waiting for.
There are similar (but smaller) market breaks that should be predictable. Every new arena season provides a smallish run on certain gem cuts, tuesdays in general see a lot of raiding and therefore a lot of flask demand. I think I'm going to move away from providing a constant supply of items to the market (which takes a lot of time and effort) to identifying and capitalizing on trends. This might actually take *more* effort as I probe the supply/demand relationship in this very weird marketplace we call the AH, but it should be interesting.
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